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China's imports continue to fall, increasing downward pressure on the economy

Release time: 2015-03-12 11:06

Standard Group (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. International Trade Information: China's imports continue to decline, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased. Exports of traditional superior products such as clothing, footwear, textiles, and furniture grew strongly, while exports of products such as automatic data processing equipment and integrated circuits fell year-on-year.


Exports increased sharply in February, while imports continued to decline sharply, and the declining trade surplus continued to remain at about $ 60 billion. Although the sharp increase in exports and the continued decline in imports are within our expectations, the magnitude of the decline in imports still exceeds market expectations, indicating that downward pressure on the economy is increasing. The main reason for the sharp increase in exports in February was that the base was too low, while the sharp decline in imports was mainly due to the lack of domestic demand. In addition, the misalignment of the Spring Festival also played a role in boosting exports and declining imports. As domestic demand continues to weaken and commodity prices continue to slump, imports may continue to be weak; while weak global economic growth will remain the most important factor restricting China's exports.

The growth of exports to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN has become the main force driving China's exports: From the perspective of the country structure, exports to the United States and ASEAN continue to become an important support for China's export growth, increasing by 48% and 84%, respectively. Exports have also improved, with a growth rate of 44%. The three have contributed nearly 30 percentage points to China's exports. Exports to other BRICS countries have also grown rapidly, contributing nearly 10 percentage points to China's exports. Due to continued weak Japanese demand and the depreciation of the yen against the renminbi, exports to Japan are still the main factor dragging down China's exports. The growth rate in February was 24%, which only contributed about 2 percentage points. In addition, the decline in export growth to Hong Kong has also become an important cause of dragging down China's export growth. Exports to Hong Kong fell by 11% in February. We believe that although exports have rebounded sharply, they are likely to be short-lived. In the current global economic and political environment, the pressure on exports cannot be ignored.

Exports of traditional superior products such as clothing, footwear, textiles, and furniture grew strongly, while exports of products such as automatic data processing equipment and integrated circuits fell year-on-year: From the perspective of commodity structure, the fastest growth in exports in February was apparel, footwear, Textiles, luggage, furniture and lamps and other traditional superior products, the growth rate is between 90% to 150%, contributing about 25 percentage points to exports. Exports of agricultural products, plastic products, aluminum and other products also increased to varying degrees, and their contribution to exports was close to 15%; while exports of high-tech products such as automatic data processing equipment and integrated circuits declined slightly year-on-year. The main reason for the sharp rebound in the export of these traditional superior products is that the base was too low in the same period last year. We do not believe that the living environment of these industries is improving. How the future situation remains to be further observed.

Imports have continued to decline sharply, and the downward pressure on the economy has increased. On the one hand, the decline in imports increased in February. On the one hand, there were factors such as the misalignment of the Spring Festival. On the other hand, it was mainly affected by low domestic prices and weak demand. From the perspective of countries, imports to the United States, Europe, Japan, and ASEAN have fallen sharply, falling by 26%, 16%, 15%, and 15%, respectively.The four have contributed close to -10% to imports, and have contributed to South Korea, Hong Kong and others. The imports of BRICS countries and other countries also showed negative growth, contributing about -7%; from the point of view of commodity structure, the products with the largest declines were mainly commodities such as petroleum, iron ore, and steel, and their contribution to imports was close to -10. %, This has a greater relationship with the continued slump in commodity prices. In addition, the import of vegetable oil, coal, natural rubber, automobiles and other products has also declined significantly, contributing about -8% to imports. The continued sharp decline in imports reflects the increasing downward pressure on the economy, and the slowdown in economic growth will curb the growth of imports. We expect that imports will maintain a downward trend in the short term.



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