Normalization of China's low and medium count yarn imports, domestic cotton spinning enterprises will be under pressureRelease time: 2015-05-28 09:28
Standard Group (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. Textile Industry Information: China's medium and low count yarn imports are normalized and domestic cotton spinning enterprises will be under pressure. As we all know, China has quota restrictions on cotton imports, and it is difficult for overseas cotton to flow into the country. In previous years, even if there were overseas cotton ports arriving on the shore, very few were able to leave the port. The difference is that there is no quota limit on cotton yarn imports. At present, as long as the cotton price difference between the inside and the outside does not narrow, cotton yarn will still be imported in large quantities.
In September 2011, China began to implement a temporary cotton purchase and storage policy, while foreign countries have been operating cotton prices in accordance with market supply and demand relations, which has led to domestic cotton prices upside down in recent years. For example, in 2012, the national cotton storage price was 20,400 yuan / ton, and in 2013 it was still 20,400 yuan / ton. During the same period, the price of imported cotton yarns was even lower than the domestic cotton price. 6000 ~ 6500 yuan / ton. In response, some domestic manufacturers and trading companies began to purchase imported cotton yarns. Yarn companies in India, Pakistan and other countries even aimed at the Chinese market and tried their best to promote their own cotton yarns. Last year, Indonesia also entered the Chinese cotton yarn market.
In order to allow domestic cotton prices to gradually return to the market, in 2014 the state cancelled the cotton temporary storage and storage policy and implemented a pilot reform of cotton target prices in Xinjiang. In 2014, when the cotton target price was 19800 yuan / ton and the market price was less than 19800 yuan / ton, the government Appropriate subsidies for cotton farmers.
However, Ji Liuyan, who works for a textile company in Hangzhou, admitted in an interview with "Textile and Apparel Weekly": "In the future, at any point in time, it will be an inevitable trend to import more yarn than cotton."
For this judgment, he further gave a detailed analysis: "At present, the domestic cotton farmers are not very enthusiastic about growing cotton. The cotton production areas in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River Basin are shrinking, and Xinjiang is shrinking. Industrialization and marketization are also being promoted as a result of 'contending for land with food'. In 2014, the government level has protected cotton farmers in Xinjiang through related policies, but the benefits of flowers and vegetables that have been greenhouseized in the mainland are better than cotton. There are many, so the government will not interfere too much. "He believes that domestic cotton may only need sufficient military strategic reserves in the future, especially with the development of the chemical fiber industry, the emergence of some imitation cotton and even super imitation cotton products Cotton for civilian use may be completely replaced by this imitation cotton product.
The fact is the same. In fact, after the sharp increase in cotton prices in 2010/2011, most spinning companies reduced the use of cotton and switched to polyester. Moreover, with the gradual widening of the polyester-cotton price gap, the amount of polyester used by spinning enterprises has also gradually increased.
Speaking of the impact of imported yarns on domestic cotton spinning enterprises, He Xiaosi, an analyst at China Cotton Textile Information Network, said in an interview with "Textile and Apparel Weekly" that the direct impact of imported yarns on the domestic market is the impact of low and medium count yarn products in China. According to statistics, due to the impact of imported yarn, the current domestic production of C32s yarn accounts for only about 25% of the total output.
According to customs statistics, China imported a total of 2.0105 million tons of cotton yarn in 2014. According to industry analysts, China's annual output of cotton yarn is about 6 million tons, and the proportion of imported cotton yarn is nearly 1/4. In the first quarter of this year, the cotton yarn imports were close to 600,000 tons. If this is calculated, the annual import volume may exceed last year.
He Xiaosi analyzed that the import volume of cotton yarns close to 600,000 tons in the first quarter may directly reduce domestic cotton consumption by more than 2.3 million tons throughout the year. As the number of imported cotton yarns hits record highs, the import of medium and low count yarns will also rise steadily, which may curb domestic cotton consumption to a certain extent.
In the short term, cotton spinning enterprises will be under pressure. "At present, imported yarns are mainly concentrated in products that are mainly below 40s. In fact, after the Spring Festival this year, domestic products below 32s have not rebounded. Air-jet spinning and siro spinning The product has been weak and has not shown any signs of stopping. "
He Xiaosi said that domestic cotton spinning enterprises still don't feel the warmth of boiled frogs in warm water. If the government has not completely liberalized the cotton market, it will be difficult to reverse the domestic and international cotton prices within 3 to 5 years, and cotton yarn imports The trend is also irreversible. In the future, imported cotton yarns will become normalized. What can change is only the increase in the annual increase in imports.
In fact, many owners of cotton yarn factories from the central and eastern parts of China and the southeast coast of China believe that because imported cotton yarns have certain advantages in price, more small and medium-sized weaving factories, printing and dyeing factories and clothing factories will "abandon domestic, "Purchasing imports and reducing production capacity" is enough to see that the use of imported cotton yarn has become a trend.
In an interview with Textile and Apparel Weekly, Zhu Qingyu, a researcher in the light industry of China Investment Consulting, also said that cotton yarn imports have exceeded cotton imports in recent years, mainly because the price competitiveness of foreign cotton yarns has further increased. On the one hand, the cost of raw materials, labor, and rent for the production of foreign cotton yarns are low; on the other hand, the production cost of cotton yarns in China has gradually increased, and there is not much difference with the quality of foreign cotton yarns.
Zhu Qingyi believes that the large amount of cotton yarn imports will bring a big impact to both cotton spinning enterprises and farmers, which is not conducive to the development of China's cotton textile market, but this is the market choice. He said: "The import volume of low-end and middle-end cotton yarn exceeds the cotton import volume as a result of market competition. Although it will cause pressure on China's cotton textile enterprises for a certain period of time, it can also force them to carry out rapid reforms."
Regarding imported cotton yarns, domestic related companies have different attitudes. Some companies believe that imported cotton yarns will impact domestic yarns; but some companies believe that domestic companies have gradually given low-yarn markets to foreign countries. However, the current situation is very different from the continued weakness of domestic low- and medium-count cotton yarns. Domestic yarn products over 40s continue to sell well, and even some bleached yarns are out of stock. It can be seen that the advantages of domestic yarns are more than 50s, especially large spinning enterprises mainly use high count yarns and produce low count yarns, which reflects the trend of China's textiles from low-end to high-end.
He Xiaosi pointed out: "At present, the international price of 32s is around 20,500 yuan, which has fallen by three or four points compared with this year before the Spring Festival. The price per ton has fallen by nearly 600 ~ 800 yuan / ton, but yarns above 40s have risen after the Spring Festival. Around 500 ~ 1000 yuan / ton, it will be little affected by imported yarn. "
Forced domestic cotton yarns to exert high force Ji Liuyan feels that cotton spinning enterprises are currently facing a kind of market pressure. "Just as the People ’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at the Boao Forum, some traditional industries may appear in the future. Big troubles and problems, some products may be eliminated. "He believes that the long-term existence of this situation will force yarn companies to take two actions: one is to go out of the company with strong capital and technology, and the other is to stay Among domestic enterprises, those who originally made low-end yarns need to upgrade their equipment and move towards automated production. This can not only reduce labor costs, but also enhance the connotation of the enterprise.
According to the statistics of China Cotton Association, in 2015 China's cotton planting area was 48.43 million mu, a year-on-year decrease of 24%. In addition, based on the extreme weather forecast of El Ni?o, the initial yield is estimated to be lower in 2015 than in 2014. In 2015, China's output will show a downward trend, with a preliminary estimate of about 10%. Consumer demand is expected to improve, with an increase of 1.5% to 2%, and the supply situation is tightening.
In fact, with China's control of cotton imports, the impact of imported cotton on the country has shrunk significantly. At present, the price of imported cotton in the quota is 11,195 yuan / ton, which is lower than domestic cotton prices. Imports still have an advantage, but the number of quotas is only 890,000 tons. In the first three months, 450,000 tons of cotton were imported, which already accounted for half of the quota.
The substitution effect of imported cotton yarn on domestic cotton yarn also affects the demand for cotton. Looking at the situation in previous years, May and June are the relative peak seasons for cotton yarn and cotton cloth. The downstream demand has gradually improved, and when domestic cotton yarn demand has improved, the enthusiasm of traders for importing cotton yarns has increased significantly. The schedule for the import of cotton yarn has been set for June and July.
Zhu Qingzhang also prescribed a prescription for cotton spinning enterprises: Since yarn import volume exceeds cotton, it will become a normal situation, and the price advantage of domestic low-count cotton yarns will become weaker and weaker. In this context, cotton spinning enterprises must urgently conduct Business transformation will focus on mid- to high-end products. Only by continuously improving product quality and strengthening product innovation can cotton spinning companies make up for the impact of the falling price advantage. If the cotton spinning enterprises succeed in transforming and upgrading, there is still much room for future development.
In fact, the final outlet of cotton spinning enterprises is to adjust the product from 32s, 40s to 50s, 60s high count yarns or combed yarns; from cotton yarns to blends, differentiated fibers, and new fiber adjustments (such as bamboo fiber yarns) , Tencel, Modal, etc.); new compact spinning, turbo spinning, Siro spinning and other equipment to increase the number of cotton yarns and improve yarn quality.
In fact, in comparison, at present, domestic yarns have the advantages of stable supply and stable quality, enterprises pay attention to reputation, and certain after-sales services are guaranteed. In addition, the integrity of the industrial chain is also one of the advantages. If the domestic cotton price drops further in the later period, and the difference between the domestic and foreign cotton prices narrows, the advantage of domestic yarns will become prominent.
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