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Cotton industry starts to improve

Release time: 2015-09-01 09:46

Standard Group's textile industry information: The gold, silver and silver industry is expected to improve. Although the situation of cotton is not optimistic, there are actually positive factors in cotton. First, the USDA supply and demand report is favorable. Recently, the US Department of Agriculture has lowered its output forecast, and foreign cotton has skyrocketed. Affected by this, domestic Zheng cotton has also seen a rebound. According to the US Department of Agriculture's August global production and demand forecast, the global cotton stocks in 2015/16 fell by 653,000 tons.

Second, the pressure on the supply side of the cotton market will decrease. According to a sample survey of the main cotton-producing counties in the 13 cotton-producing provinces across the country, the actual cotton planting area in 2015 is expected to be 52.64 million mu, a 20% decrease from 2014; The total cotton output was 5.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. According to Chinese customs statistics, in July 2015, China imported 105,700 tons of cotton, a decrease of 34.67% month-on-month. From September 2014 to July 2015, China imported 160,900 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 42.80%.

Under the favorable effects mentioned above, although other commodities have hit new lows this week, the main cotton contract trend is relatively stable, ready to go, and looking for opportunities to break through.

Business editor-in-chief, Liu Xintian, a core expert of China's Commodity Development Research Center, predicts that cotton may become the "pioneer" to rebound first in the tide of commodity declines. There are three reasons: First, the bearishness has been basically digested recently, and the positive has not yet exerted its strength. The upcoming Golden Nine and Silver Ten will surely stimulate the latent favorable outbreak of cotton. Second, this year's El Nino phenomenon may be the strongest on record. Climate conditions The impact of this may lead to a decline in cotton production and rising cotton demand. Third, as cotton prices have been lingering at the bottom for a long time, domestic yarns and imported yarns have begun to become competitive. From an alternative point of view, viscose prices have begun to be higher than cotton. Demand also has a positive impact.

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