Cotton quantity and quality both decline, textile upstream industry faces big adjustmentRelease time: 2015-09-23 16:28
Standards Group (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. Textile Industry Information: Both cotton quantity and quality drop. The upstream textile industry is facing major adjustments. In recent years, the planting area in the main cotton producing areas has fallen rapidly, and crops such as corn with less investment and less labor are constantly occupying the cotton planting area. In the future, China ’s cotton market under-production will be the norm, and the current pattern of excess cotton supply will be improved . In addition, if the Chinese government can regulate the cotton imports in an orderly manner as needed, it will further accelerate the formation of a new market structure.
Yield and total production both declined "Before July this year, Xinjiang was basically weathered and cotton production was at its best level in recent years. Many farmers have high expectations for cotton harvest. After entering July, high temperatures in most areas of Xinjiang, The highest temperature in some areas exceeds 40 ° C, which is extremely detrimental to the growth of cotton, and the number of cotton bottom peaches and waist peaches is not as good as in previous years. In early and mid-August, not only the high-temperature weather continued, but also windy weather. From late August to now, The continuous low temperature weather has affected the formation of cotton top peaches, and also delayed the time of cotton tart blooming, causing some cotton to appear a lot of green peaches and stiff peaches. "Ma Congbao, general manager of Midong Cotton & Linen Company in Urumqi told futures Daily reporters predict that Xinjiang's cotton output this year is not as good as last year.
The reporter and his team visited Nongzhixin Agricultural Cooperative and Ginning Plant, Xinjiang Zhutian Dadi Logistics Co., Ltd., Yinli Cotton Industry Group, Shihezi Tianyin Logistics Co., Ltd., Zhujiazhuang Community, Beiquan Town, Shihezi City, Kuitun Kangrui Cotton Industry and Huihui. Cotton, Beijiang Nongjiale Co., Ltd., Jinghe County Haixiang Cotton Co., Ltd., cotton and linen supply and marketing company of Nongwu Division, and some cotton farmers, ginners and responsible persons, cotton Brokers and others exchanged ideas and went into the field to take a closer look at cotton growth.
According to the analysis of the situation held by the reporter, Xinjiang's cotton yield and total output will both decline this year, and the reduction is a foregone conclusion.
It is understood that in order to guide the planting structure of crop varieties to be more reasonable, in the cotton planting season this year, relevant Xinjiang authorities have introduced some measures and policies to guide farmers to reduce cotton planting. Some sub-optimal and low-yielding cotton areas have been replanted with other crops. At the same time, due to urban construction and other needs, many areas occupy a part of cotton fields. In addition, due to the decline in cotton growing income in recent years, some cotton farmers have switched to corn, wheat, vegetables, melon, gourds, and fruit trees, which has led to a decline in cotton cultivation area this year.
"In 2014, there were 39.2 million mu of cotton planted in Xinjiang, and this year it is estimated to be only 33.3 million mu. The cotton planted area of local and corps fell by about 15%." Zhang Wenmin, general manager of Huaxin Wanda Futures Cotton Industry Division, told reporters that The planting area is reduced. Under the condition of normal yield, this item alone will reduce Xinjiang's total cotton output by about 500,000 tons. Lafu, the general manager of Xinjiang Zhutian Dadi Logistics Co., Ltd., is a native of Xinjiang. According to him, cotton was planted around the company 3 years ago, and almost no one is now seen.
From Urumqi to Shihezi, the reporter saw the most crops along the way are corn, wheat, millet and fruit trees. In the past, 40% of the land along the way was planted with cotton, and now only 10%. Many farmers told reporters that planting corn, etc. has low investment, high income, low risk, high cotton investment, and large losses.
In addition to a reduction in planted area, yields are also falling. "The high-temperature weather above 39 ° C for two months of July and August was 19 days, which seriously affected the normal growth of cotton. The number of cotton peaches this year was significantly lower than that of last year, and the weight of single bolls also dropped significantly." A member of Zhujiazhuang Community, Beiquan Town, Shihezi City The person in charge of the production of 73,000 acres of cotton fields said that this year's cotton production is measured at 370-380 kg / mu (seed cotton, the same below), the actual output after the machine has been collected is only 280-290 kg / mu, and the cotton single boll weight From about 5 grams last year to 4.1-4.2 grams, preliminary estimates of cotton yield this year are 20% -25% lower than last year.
The reporter saw in some cotton fields that this year's cotton generally does not have top peaches, and the number of bottom peaches and waist peaches is not large. Many cotton plants still have a large number of completely tight green peaches. As the temperature further decreases, these green peaches Peach is basically useless. In addition, the reporter also found that due to weather reasons, many cottons that have been treated with deciduous agents still have jamming, and there are many crooked peaches, which will affect cotton yield and total output. However, in some production areas, due to the management in place and the cultivation of high temperature resistant hybrid cotton, its single yield and total yield are not affected.
Sun Tao, who has been engaged in cotton trade business in Xinjiang for 11 years, said that overall, cotton in Xinjiang has suffered from adverse weather during the later stages of growth this year. Whether it is northern or southern Xinjiang, the cotton yield is not as good as last year. It is estimated that it will eventually lead to The total output has fallen sharply, and new cotton resources will be tight.
The quality of the new cotton is not optimistic. A person in charge of a cotton and linen company in Shawan County told reporters that since the listing of the new cotton, the company has tested the lint length, clothing points, and horse value of 71 cotton varieties, among which the average lint length It is 27.3 mm, which is lower than the middle level compared with previous years. At present, there are new cotton on the market in all parts of Xinjiang. Most of them are hand-picked cotton. The main reason why hand-picked cotton is on the market early is that in order to facilitate mechanical operations, it is necessary to manually pick the cotton in advance.
According to the analysis of the situation learned by reporters in several ginning factories that have been in operation, the quality of new cotton is not optimistic, mainly because the length of cotton velvet is much lower than in previous years, and the length of most cotton velvets is 26-28 mm, which exceeds 29 mm. less. At the same time, the horse value of the cotton that has been picked is generally high, and the cotton clothing has not reached the previous expectations. In order to improve the quality of cotton and make the new lint processed meet the purchasing standards of textile enterprises, this year Xinjiang ’s local and corps ginners have increased their quality management efforts. For example, in order to reduce the “three wires,” the Corps and other departments have treated cotton fields with mulch film. , Cotton picker operation, seed cotton loading and unloading and transportation have formulated detailed operating procedures, and require workers to strictly follow the prescribed procedures.
From the current analysis of cotton sacking in Xinjiang, the Corps is relatively consistent. Most of the cotton has been sprayed with deciduous agent, and the cotton sacking situation of local cotton farmers is quite different. It is understood that the end of September will usher in the peak of mechanical mining, of which the percentage of cotton picking by the Corps in northern Xinjiang will account for 90% this year, and the percentage of cotton picking by local machinery will rise to 60% -65%, while the percentage of mechanical picking in the Southern Xinjiang Region The proportion of cotton will increase to more than 50%, and the proportion of cotton collected by local machines will be around 5%.
Judging from the quality of hand-picked cotton and machine-picked cotton, the quality of hand-picked cotton is better than that of machine-picked cotton, but the gap between the two will narrow a lot this year, mainly because most users of machine-picked cotton are corps and agriculture. Cooperatives, machine mining operation technology has improved a lot compared with last year, coupled with cotton selection, planting, field management and other aspects have done a lot of basic work for the later smooth machine mining, which greatly improved the quality of machine cotton.
However, market professionals estimate that the overall quality of new cotton this year will be difficult to achieve the expected target, which will lead to a limited number of high-quality cotton resources this year, exacerbating the current tight supply of high-quality cotton in the domestic cotton market. In addition, the domestic cotton market will also show a development trend of high quality and good prices, which is conducive to the promotion of fine cotton varieties, guide cotton farmers to regulate and large-scale planting, and also help improve the degree of cotton mechanization.
Rush buying is emerging in the new cotton acquisition market. At present, new cotton across Xinjiang has begun to market, mainly by hand-picked cotton, and machine-picked cotton is only listed sporadically. Because the actual output of new cotton in many areas is not as good as expected, the yield of new cotton has fallen too much in some areas, and the cotton processing capacity has been excessively excessive. After the listing of new cotton, cotton brokers, traders, and ginners appeared in various areas. Raising prices to buy new cotton.
According to the reporter's analysis of the situation of the acquisition of new cotton in Xinjiang, the current situation of the acquisition of new cotton is a bit chaotic. The prices of cotton brokers, traders and ginners vary, and the requirements for the quality of new cotton purchases vary widely. This left cotton farmers at a loss. At the same time, the drop in measured output has also caused cotton farmers to be reluctant to sell and wait and see, which has led to a more complicated situation in the acquisition of new cotton this year.
"The two ginneries set up in Xinjiang were ready for acquisition on September 10, and trial purchases began on September 15. The initial purchase price was 5.3 yuan per kilogram (with clothing points above 40 and cotton picked by hand, The same below), but waited a few days to see the cotton delivery car patronize, but had no choice but to increase the purchase price to 5.8-6 yuan per kilogram, but has only collected more than 200 tons of seed cotton. "A cotton trader in Shihezi City told reporters this year The acquisition of new cotton is more difficult. Cotton farmers and cotton brokers inquire about the market before selling cotton. They will go to a number of ginners to understand the situation. In addition, all ginners are holding the attitude of buying, which makes this year's new cotton The acquisition was not smooth.
According to the reporter's understanding, the current purchase price of machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang is 4.5-4.8 yuan per kilogram, and the minimum purchase price in some regions is 4.2 yuan, while the minimum purchase price of hand-picked cotton is about 4.5 yuan, and the purchase price of better quality has reached 6 yuan. However, from the point of view of the cost of hand-picked cotton and machine-picked cotton to eventually produce lint, the production cost of machine-picked cotton is still higher than that of hand-picked cotton, mainly due to the large discount and loss of machine-picked cotton.
According to the current purchase price of newly-produced seed cotton in Xinjiang, 5.5-6 yuan per kilogram, the ex-factory price of lint cotton in Xinjiang with a medium grade or above will reach 13,000 yuan / ton. Compared with the current Zheng cotton futures price, Zheng cotton futures price is a bit On the low side. And if according to the analysis of the development trend of the purchase price of newly-produced seed cotton, the spot lint price in the domestic period may usher in a wave of rising prices.
Market Demand to Be Started Compared with the fierce acquisition situation of the newly-produced seed cotton market, the current domestic cotton market demand is particularly deserted. Sun Tao said that in the middle and late September of last year, mainland textile companies were very enthusiastic about purchasing Xinjiang cotton, and the settlement price sent to the factory was relatively cost-effective. At that time, a large amount of Xinjiang cotton arrived by steam transportation to the mainland market. The freight is as high as 1,100 yuan / ton, but it still does not affect the enthusiasm of mainland textile companies for purchasing Xinjiang cotton.
"From the analysis of cotton export in Xinjiang this year, the export volume since September is much less than last year, and the demand for cotton export from Xinjiang has dropped to a lower level in recent years." According to Sun Tao, the economic environment is relatively Poor performance, as well as the backlog of products from mainland textile enterprises, coupled with the difficulty of capital turnover of many textile enterprises, have led to a decline in cotton sales in Xinjiang. However, there are still many large textile companies in the mainland that are doing well. They have conducted a survey of cotton production in Xinjiang in early September. The reason why there is not a large number of purchases is because new cotton has not yet been listed on the market.
When interviewing some large logistics companies and cotton storage enterprises, the reporter found that the amount of Chen cotton currently available in the Xinjiang region for sale to the mainland is not large. The first is that many national cotton reserves have been sold or moved to storage. The small and small amount of stock also means that the traders did not have time to ship the cotton; in the end, the amount of new cotton listed was not as good as last year, and the price was more chaotic. The above factors cause the current Xinjiang cotton market demand to look sluggish.
Yang Zhijiang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Futures Cotton, believes that domestic cotton market demand has not yet started, and the market is at an inflection point of warming demand. First, after the price of domestic cotton continues to decline, the price advantage of imported cotton will weaken, and the demand for domestic cotton will gradually rise in the later period; second, the restructuring and layout of the textile industry has not been finalized, and the procurement demand for domestic cotton by textile enterprises needs a recovery time Third, the number of cotton substitutes is declining, and the increase in cotton demand is worth looking forward to.
The reporter and industry insiders learned that due to the recent fluctuations in the global currency exchange rate, domestic textile companies have a weak desire to accept long-term orders. In addition, the Canton Fair will soon be held. Many textile companies want to learn more about market development trends. In the short term, It also affected the sales of domestic cotton, especially Xinjiang cotton.
The new market structure is taking shape. “Because of the decline in cotton output and quality in Xinjiang this year, the lack of domestic cotton market needs to be basically determined this year.” Zhang Wenmin believes that excluding the impact of state reserve cotton sales, if the amount of imported cotton is similar to last year, in the future The market structure of the domestic cotton market will undergo major changes, and a new market structure will be formed.
When investigating in Jinghe County, Xinjiang, and the main cotton producing areas in the Mainland, Shandong, Hebei, and Hubei, the reporter found that in recent years, the planting area in the main cotton producing areas has fallen rapidly, and crops with less investment such as corn and less labor are constantly crowding out cotton planting. In terms of area, the lack of production in China's cotton market in the future will be the norm, and the current pattern of oversupply in the cotton market will be improved. In addition, if the Chinese government can regulate the cotton imports in an orderly manner as needed, it will further accelerate the formation of a new market structure.
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